惠誉：新发行显示AT1债市复苏，但市场信心仍然脆弱（附英文原文）

随着英国、瑞士和法国的发行人在八九月份重返AT1债市，该市场在经历了上半年的低谷之后（上半年发行量228亿美元，为去年同期的一半），已经显示出复苏迹象，不过市场信心仍然脆弱。 英国银行巴克莱、苏格兰皇家银行（RBS）和渣打在退欧公投后的8月份共计发行61.5亿美元7%-trigger AT1。 亚洲发行人在2016年二季度交出白卷，不过，三季度中，工银亚洲和星展银行发行的AT1受到投资者的热捧，印度国家银行（State Bank of India）则发行了印度银行的首笔境外发行美元AT1。惠誉预计，2019年3月之前，印度银行业将需要900亿美元的新资本补充以达到Basel III协议的要求，其中，大约30%（270亿美元）将以发行AT1的方式筹集。 在欧元区，监管机构最近对“最大可分配金额”（maximum distributable amount，MDA）门槛作出的界定将导致MDA相关的Pillar 2要求降低，有利于该区域发行人未来的AT1发行。此外，2016 Supervisory Review and Evaluation Process（SREP）中规定的总资本要求（total capital requirement）将激励欧元区银行发行更多的AT1（而不是CET1）来满足部分的监管要求。 惠誉的AT1损失承担“平均触发距离”（Trigger Distance Average，用于测量AT1市场的整体本金减计/转股风险）在2016年二季度末减少21个基点至687个基点。同时，二季度末，所有发行人的加权平均CET1 ratio（与AT1 Trigger相关的Phased-in /Fully-loaded CET 1 ratio）由一季度末的12.8%降低至12.7%。这部分由主要AT1发行人的Fully-loaded CET1 ratio下降所致，同时也受部分银行Phase-in arrangements的影响。 截至2016年6月底，惠誉的AT1 Tracker Tool包含总金额2400亿美元的有评级和无评级AT1/其他capital-trigger债券。 原文：Fitch: Renewed Issuance Signals Cautious Recovery of AT1 Market Fitch Ratings-London-19 September 2016: Issuance of additional tier 1 (AT1) instruments picked up after a slow 1H16 as established issuers returned to the market, says Fitch Ratings in its latest Dashboard for AT1. Banks raised only USD22.8bn in 1H16, about half of the volume in 1H15, but large issuance in August and September, by UK, Swiss and French banks, signal a cautious recovery of the market. While prior to the UK's EU referendum issuance by UK-based banks had slowed down, Barclays, RBS and Standard Chartered issued a total USD6.15bn of 7%-trigger AT1 bonds in August. Asian issuers returned to the market after a muted second quarter, with ICBC Asia and DBS Group Holdings Ltd's issues signalling resilient investor appetite. State Bank of India's recent USD offering represented the first cross border AT1 by an Indian bank. Fitch estimates that Indian banks will require around USD90bn in new capital by the end of the fiscal year to March 2019 to meet Basel III standards, of which around 30% will be required in AT1. In the eurozone, further issuance will be underpinned by a recent clarification around the maximum distributable amount (MDA) threshold, which should result in lower MDA-relevant Pillar 2 requirements. In addition, the announced introduction of a total capital requirement following the 2016 Supervisory Review and Evaluation Process (SREP) should be supportive of the AT1 market as banks will have an incentive to meet part of the requirement with AT1 rather than CET1 capital. The Fitch Trigger Distance Average - which measures the write-down/conversion risk in the AT1 market - decreased to 687bp at end-2Q16 (by 21bp), despite all but one newly added issue having 5.125% triggers. Across all issues the weighted average end-1Q16 CET1 ratio referenced by the triggers decreased to 12.7% from 12.8%. This was in part caused by large issuers experiencing a dip in the fully-loaded CET1 ratio, but also by the phase-in arrangements due in 1Q16. Fitch's updated AT1 Tracker Tool includes 212 rated and unrated AT1 and other capital-trigger bonds totalling USD240bn issued up to end-2Q16 as well as financial data on AT1 issuers, which allows users to assess the absolute and relative coupon risk of AT1 instruments and the write-down/conversion risk of AT1 and Tier 2 contingent capital instruments. The Dashboard also includes country- or bank-specific commentary including on expected changes to SREP requirements and the MDA threshold for eurozone issuers.